转载3月23日福布斯文章 中星微:一家中概股尚待发现的宝石

作者 Junheng Li

视频技术提供商中星微在3月18日公布的2014年第四季度财报中,营收和股东利润都有强劲的表现。归功于其符合SVAC国家标准的技术和解决方案(我们认为这将成为业界标准),公司2014年全年营收较上年增长55.7%至1.004亿美元。全年归属于股东的非美国通用会计准则每股净收益为0.22美元,相比于2013年每股净亏损0.23美元。
我们认为中星微是一颗罕见的宝石,由于政府的认可和支持,这家在美国上市的中国小盘股在其生命周期的中的关键时候拥有令人信服的产品。我们期望中星微能够继续扩展其销售版图,尤其是当中国国内的不安定因素增加时将激发更快速广泛的采用公共监控设施。摄像头的更换周期一般为四到五年,随着作为中星微的核心用户的更多地方公安部门采用其产品,经常性收入占其总营收的比例亦将提升,这将助益于增加公司未来营收和利润流的可见性。此外,在私有部门追随公共部门采用后,视频监控设备的市场渗透率将必然增加。相对于外国现有技术,中国政策导向隐性地偏向如SVAC的国内自主技术,这将使中国企业在竞争中占得上风。
出于国家安全和安保风险上升的担忧,公众对国内视频监控标准重要性的认知不断提升,尤其是在最近海康威视这家中国主要的视频监控产品厂商发生的事件之后。地方公安部门因此敦促采取一种统一的公共视频监控标准,而SVAC正是由中星微和中国公安部第一研究所制定的领先标准。
中国现在每年在视频监控产品上花费约100亿美元。公共安全系统占到40%,即40亿美元,这显示了中星微广阔的潜在市场。以其2014年1亿美元的营收来看,中星微仍处于利用其先发优势在全国公共和私有部门范围的第一轮增长中。
我们认为公司在未来几年中有持续增长营收的势头。此外,由于其前期在研发、市场教育和销售中等经营成本中的大量投入,中星微的运作模式有巨大的杠杆作用。
我们预期2015年公司营收增长率为40%到50%,利润增长率将超过100%,达到每股收益0.22到0.50美元。作为一家单纯的快速发展的技术公司,在市场渗透率非常早期的阶段,至少值25至30倍的价格利润比。因此我们的目标价格为12至15美元,即45%至74%的价格上涨空间。

以下是英文原文
Vimicro: A Hidden Chinese Small-Cap Gem
By Junheng Li
Video technology supplier Vimicro (Nasdaq: VIMC) delivered a strong 4Q 2014 performance in revenue and, more importantly, earnings distributable to shareholders on Wednesday, March 18. 2014 annual revenue increased by 55.7% to $100.14 million, largely driven by the SVAC-compliant technology and solution, which we believe will become the industry standard. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) distributable to shareholders were ~$0.22 in 2014 vs. a net loss of $0.23 per share in 2013.
We see Vimicro as a rare gem: A Chinese small-cap stock listed in the U.S. with a compelling product at the right time in its life cycle due to government endorsement and support. We expect Vimicro to continue to expand its sales footprint, especially in China’s interior where domestic unrest could rise further, spurring the wider and faster adoption of public surveillance infrastructure. Since the replacement cycle of the camera head is about 4-5 years, as more local police departments — currently VIMC’s core users — start to adopt VIMC products, the recurring revenue as a percentage of total revenue will increase, adding to the visibility of company’s revenue and income stream. Furthermore, surveillance equipment market penetration is inevitable to increase, with the private sector following the public sector. Policy guidance implicitly favoring homegrown technology such as SVAC at the expense of foreign incumbents will give domestic companies an upper hand in the competition.
Rising concerns in China about safety and security risks are increasing public awareness on the importance of domestic video surveillance standards, especially after the recent incident at Hikvison, a major Chinese supplier of video surveillance products. Local public security departments are consequently urged to adopt a uniform public video surveillance standard, and SVAC is the leading standard developed jointed by VIMC and the First Research Institute of the Ministry of Public Security of China.
China currently spends ~$10 billion on video surveillance products every year. The Public Security System accounts for 40%, or ~$4 billion, which we see as the size of Vimicro’s potential addressable market. Considering its revenue was $100 million in 2014, Vimicro is still in its first inning of growth into public and private sectors nationally with a first mover’s advantage.
Going forward, we see sustainable revenue growth momentum in the next few years. In addition, due to the heavy upfront operating costs including research and development, market education, and marketing and sales, Vimicro’s operating model has tremendous leverage.
We estimate revenue growth of 40-50% and earnings growth of more than 100% from $0.22 to ~$0.50 in 2015. For a pure play and fast growing technology company in the very early stage of market penetration, it deserve a price-to-earnings multiple of at least 25 -30x, which leads to our price target of $12 to $15, or 45% to 74% upside in the stock.

原文链接请访问:http://www.forbes.com/sites/junhli/2015/03/23/vimicro-a-hidden-chinese-small-cap-gem/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix